Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | 29.6% | 24.0% | 20.3% | 12.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.5 | 24.3%−0.3 | 5.0%+15.3 | 20.4%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 123,181 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 61.8% |
Current member
Liam Byrne · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Byrne Elected | Labour | 10,655 | 31.2 |
| James Giles | Other | 9,089 | 26.6 |
| Jamie Pullin | Reform UK | 6,456 | 18.9 |
| Caroline Clapper | Conservative | 4,634 | 13.6 |
| Imran Khan | Green | 2,360 | 6.9 |
| Qasim Esak | Lib Dems | 942 | 2.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
- Solihull West and Shirley Conservative, safe seat
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated