Solihull West and Shirley
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull West and Shirley | 32.7% | 22.9% | 18.1% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.3 | 23.1%−0.2 | 24.3%−6.2 | 10.3%+3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,329 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 73.0% |
Current member
Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Shastri-Hurst Elected | Conservative | 16,284 | 34.7 |
| Deirdre Fox | Labour | 11,664 | 24.9 |
| Ade Adeyemo | Lib Dems | 7,916 | 16.9 |
| Mary McKenna | Reform UK | 7,149 | 15.3 |
| Max McLoughlin | Green | 3,270 | 7.0 |
| Julian Knight | Other | 594 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Meriden and Solihull East Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated