Birmingham Selly Oak
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Selly Oak | 35.3% | 23.5% | 15.1% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.1 | 23.1%+0.4 | 10.4%+4.7 | 20.4%−6.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,874 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 77.7% |
Current member
Al Carns · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 11.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Carns Elected | Labour | 17,371 | 45.2 |
| Simon Phipps | Conservative | 5,834 | 15.2 |
| Erin Crawford | Reform UK | 5,732 | 14.9 |
| Jane Baston | Green | 4,320 | 11.2 |
| Kamel Hawwash | Other | 2,842 | 7.4 |
| Dave Radcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,324 | 6.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Northfield Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Solihull West and Shirley Conservative, safe seat
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated