Tamworth
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 36.8% | 26.8% | 21.8% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+13.8 | 20.4%+6.4 | 24.3%−2.5 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,524 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Sarah Edwards · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Edwards Elected | Labour | 15,338 | 35.0 |
| Eddie Hughes | Conservative | 13,956 | 31.9 |
| Ian Cooper | Reform UK | 11,004 | 25.1 |
| Susan Howarth | Green | 1,579 | 3.6 |
| Jed Marson | Lib Dems | 1,451 | 3.3 |
| Robert Bilcliff | Other | 290 | 0.7 |
| Adam Goodfellow | Other | 170 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Lichfield Reform UK, toss-up
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated