Banbury
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banbury | 28.0% | 26.7% | 23.1% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.6 | 24.3%+2.5 | 23.1% | 10.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,589 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 77.6% |
Current member
Sean Woodcock · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Woodcock Elected | Labour | 18,468 | 38.3 |
| Victoria Prentis | Conservative | 15,212 | 31.6 |
| Paul Topley | Reform UK | 6,284 | 13.0 |
| Liz Adams | Lib Dems | 4,352 | 9.0 |
| Arron Baker | Green | 2,615 | 5.4 |
| Cassi Bellingham | Other | 850 | 1.8 |
| Chris Nevile | Other | 242 | 0.5 |
| Declan Soper | Other | 155 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bicester and Woodstock Lib Dems, safe seat
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
- Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Oxford East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated