Oxford East
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford East | 40.6% | 19.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.3 | 10.4%+8.7 | 5.0%+6.9 | 20.4%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 118,578 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 75.8% |
Current member
Anneliese Dodds · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 33.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anneliese Dodds Elected | Labour | 19,541 | 49.7 |
| Sushila Dhall | Green | 5,076 | 12.9 |
| Louise Brown | Conservative | 4,739 | 12.0 |
| Theodore Jupp | Lib Dems | 3,437 | 8.7 |
| David Henwood | Other | 2,381 | 6.1 |
| Amir Ali | Other | 1,761 | 4.5 |
| Zaid Marham | Other | 615 | 1.6 |
| Jabu Nala-Hartley | Other | 600 | 1.5 |
| Andrew Smith | Other | 425 | 1.1 |
| Katherine Longthorp | Other | 337 | 0.9 |
| Benjamin Adams | Other | 232 | 0.6 |
| Brandon French | Other | 197 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bicester and Woodstock Lib Dems, safe seat
- Didcot and Wantage Lib Dems, safe seat
- Henley and Thame Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative, toss-up
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated