Henley and Thame
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henley and Thame | 41.0% | 28.9% | 16.9% | 6.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.7 | 20.4%+8.5 | 23.1%−6.2 | 10.4%−4.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,737 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 76.7% |
Current member
Freddie van Mierlo · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 11.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 12.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Van Mierlo Elected | Lib Dems | 23,904 | 45.0 |
| Caroline Newton | Conservative | 17,637 | 33.2 |
| Peter Shields | Reform UK | 5,213 | 9.8 |
| Nanda Manley-Browne | Labour | 3,574 | 6.7 |
| Jo Robb | Green | 2,008 | 3.8 |
| Maryse Pomlett | Other | 515 | 1.0 |
| David Carpin | Other | 306 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative, safe seat
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Oxford East Labour, safe seat
- Wycombe Labour, toss-up
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative, toss-up
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated