Mid Buckinghamshire
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Buckinghamshire | 35.0% | 23.7% | 18.8% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.5 | 10.3%+13.4 | 23.1%−4.3 | 24.3%−13.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,008 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 81.5% |
Current member
Greg Smith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Smith Elected | Conservative | 20,150 | 37.4 |
| Anja Schaefer | Lib Dems | 14,278 | 26.5 |
| Carissma Griffiths | Labour | 9,171 | 17.0 |
| Stephanie Harwood | Reform UK | 6,926 | 12.8 |
| Greg Smith | Green | 2,942 | 5.5 |
| Yvonne Wilding | Other | 337 | 0.6 |
| Wisdom Da Costa | Other | 147 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wycombe Labour, toss-up
- Henley and Thame Lib Dems, safe seat
- Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative, toss-up
- Aylesbury Conservative, toss-up
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, competitive
- Chesham and Amersham Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated