Buckingham and Bletchley
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buckingham and Bletchley | 28.6% | 25.2% | 24.8% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.2 | 23.1%+2.1 | 24.3%+0.5 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,944 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 80.2% |
Current member
Callum Anderson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Anderson Elected | Labour | 17,602 | 37.0 |
| Iain Stewart | Conservative | 15,181 | 31.9 |
| Jordan Cattell | Reform UK | 7,468 | 15.7 |
| Dominic Dyer | Lib Dems | 4,300 | 9.0 |
| Amanda Onwuemene | Green | 2,590 | 5.4 |
| Ray Brady | Other | 500 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Northamptonshire Conservative, safe seat
- Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative, safe seat
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, competitive
- Milton Keynes North Labour, toss-up
- Aylesbury Conservative, toss-up
- Northampton South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated