Northampton South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton South | 28.1% | 26.2% | 26.0% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.1 | 24.3%+2.0 | 20.4%+5.6 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,318 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Mike Reader · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reader Elected | Labour | 16,890 | 38.5 |
| Andrew Lewer | Conservative | 12,819 | 29.2 |
| Tony Owens | Reform UK | 8,210 | 18.7 |
| Jill Hope | Lib Dems | 3,193 | 7.3 |
| Simon Sneddon | Green | 2,398 | 5.5 |
| Katie Simpson | Other | 296 | 0.7 |
| Penelope Tollitt | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton North Labour, competitive
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
- South Northamptonshire Conservative, safe seat
- Milton Keynes North Labour, toss-up
- Kettering Reform UK, toss-up
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated