Kettering
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 77%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kettering | 28.3% | 24.1% | 23.3% | 17.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.2 | 20.4%+3.7 | 24.3%−1.0 | 10.4%+7.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,644 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 73.6% |
Current member
Rosie Wrighting · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 7.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Wrighting Elected | Labour | 18,009 | 35.9 |
| Philip Hollobone | Conservative | 14,189 | 28.2 |
| Crispian Besley | Reform UK | 8,468 | 16.9 |
| Emily Fedorowycz | Green | 7,004 | 13.9 |
| Sarah Ryan | Lib Dems | 1,357 | 2.7 |
| Jim Hakewill | Other | 1,057 | 2.1 |
| Matthew Murphy | Other | 85 | 0.2 |
| Jehad Abduramadan | Other | 62 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
- Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour, toss-up
- Northampton North Labour, competitive
- Rutland and Stamford Conservative, safe seat
- Northampton South Reform UK, toss-up
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated