Rutland and Stamford
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutland and Stamford | 39.7% | 22.7% | 14.7% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+19.3 | 23.1%−0.3 | 24.3%−9.6 | 10.3%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,813 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 74.6% |
Current member
Alicia Kearns · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 21.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 17.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia Kearns Elected | Conservative | 21,248 | 43.7 |
| Joe Wood | Labour | 10,854 | 22.3 |
| Chris Clowes | Reform UK | 7,008 | 14.4 |
| James Moore | Lib Dems | 6,252 | 12.9 |
| Emma Baker | Green | 2,806 | 5.8 |
| Joanna Burrows | Other | 409 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Melton and Syston Conservative, competitive
- Kettering Reform UK, toss-up
- Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour, toss-up
- Grantham and Bourne Conservative, toss-up
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated