Corby and East Northamptonshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corby and East Northamptonshire | 29.9% | 27.7% | 25.6% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.6 | 23.1%+4.6 | 20.4%+5.2 | 10.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 118,206 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 81.8% |
Current member
Lee Barron · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Barron Elected | Labour | 21,020 | 42.4 |
| Tom Pursglove | Conservative | 14,689 | 29.6 |
| Eddie McDonald | Reform UK | 8,760 | 17.7 |
| Lee Forster | Green | 2,507 | 5.1 |
| Chris Lofts | Lib Dems | 2,191 | 4.4 |
| Karen Blott | Other | 422 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
- Kettering Reform UK, toss-up
- Rutland and Stamford Conservative, safe seat
- North West Cambridgeshire Conservative, toss-up
- Huntingdon Conservative, safe seat
- North Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated