North West Cambridgeshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West Cambridgeshire | 29.6% | 29.5% | 21.0% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.2 | 23.1%+6.4 | 24.3%−3.3 | 10.4%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 116,431 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Sam Carling · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carling Elected | Labour | 14,785 | 33.3 |
| Shailesh Vara | Conservative | 14,746 | 33.2 |
| James Sidlow | Reform UK | 8,741 | 19.7 |
| Bridget Smith | Lib Dems | 3,192 | 7.2 |
| Elliot Tong | Green | 2,960 | 6.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peterborough Conservative, toss-up
- Huntingdon Conservative, safe seat
- Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour, toss-up
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- North Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated