North Bedfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Bedfordshire | 35.7% | 23.7% | 19.5% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.3 | 23.1%+0.6 | 24.3%−4.7 | 10.3%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,917 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
Current member
Richard Fuller · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 12.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Fuller Elected | Conservative | 19,981 | 38.8 |
| Uday Nagaraju | Labour | 14,567 | 28.3 |
| Pippa Clayton | Reform UK | 8,433 | 16.4 |
| Joanna Szaub-Newton | Lib Dems | 5,553 | 10.8 |
| Philippa Fleming | Green | 3,027 | 5.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bedford Labour, safe seat
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
- Huntingdon Conservative, safe seat
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated