Luton North
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton North | 29.4% | 21.5% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.2 | 23.1%−1.6 | 20.4%−3.1 | 5.0%+11.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,600 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 65.6% |
Current member
Sarah Owen · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Owen Elected | Labour | 14,677 | 37.9 |
| Jilleane Brown | Conservative | 7,167 | 18.5 |
| James Fletcher | Reform UK | 4,666 | 12.0 |
| Toqueer Shah | Other | 4,393 | 11.3 |
| Waheed Akbar | Other | 3,914 | 10.1 |
| Ejel Khan | Green | 1,940 | 5.0 |
| Sean Prendergast | Lib Dems | 1,890 | 4.9 |
| Paul Trathen | Other | 98 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Hemel Hempstead Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated