Luton South and South Bedfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 76%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton South and South Bedfordshire | 26.5% | 22.9% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.2 | 23.1%−0.2 | 5.0%+12.6 | 20.4%−4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,695 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 69.8% |
Current member
Rachel Hopkins · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Hopkins Elected | Labour | 13,593 | 35.4 |
| Mark Versallion | Conservative | 6,735 | 17.6 |
| Attiq Malik | Other | 5,384 | 14.0 |
| Norman Maclean | Reform UK | 4,759 | 12.4 |
| Yasin Rehman | Other | 3,110 | 8.1 |
| Edward Carpenter | Green | 2,401 | 6.3 |
| Dominic Griffiths | Lib Dems | 2,400 | 6.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Hemel Hempstead Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated