South West Hertfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South West Hertfordshire | 31.2% | 22.6% | 21.4% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.8 | 10.3%+12.3 | 23.1%−1.6 | 24.3%−10.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,463 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 82.5% |
Current member
Mr Gagan Mohindra · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gagan Mohindra Elected | Conservative | 16,458 | 34.1 |
| Sally Symington | Lib Dems | 12,002 | 24.9 |
| Alex Sufit | Labour | 9,637 | 20.0 |
| Keith Steers | Reform UK | 6,790 | 14.1 |
| Narinder Sian | Green | 2,532 | 5.3 |
| Bernadette O'Malley | Other | 295 | 0.6 |
| Victor Silkin | Other | 232 | 0.5 |
| Michael McGetrick | Other | 158 | 0.3 |
| Ketankumar Pipaliya | Other | 150 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Watford Labour, toss-up
- Hemel Hempstead Reform UK, toss-up
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated