Harrow West
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrow West | 34.4% | 27.8% | 13.3% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 20.4%+7.4 | 23.1%−9.7 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 122,230 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 72.8% |
Current member
Gareth Thomas · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Thomas Elected | Labour | 19,833 | 43.8 |
| Abbas Merali | Conservative | 13,191 | 29.2 |
| Pamela Fitzpatrick | Other | 4,120 | 9.1 |
| Michael Beavis | Reform UK | 2,639 | 5.8 |
| Rupert Nepal George | Green | 2,438 | 5.4 |
| Chris Noyce | Lib Dems | 2,404 | 5.3 |
| Bharatkumar Ishverbhai Patel | Other | 616 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Brent West Labour, toss-up
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
- Ealing Southall Labour, safe seat
- Watford Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated