Harrow East
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrow East | 50.1% | 19.3% | 13.2% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+29.7 | 24.3%−5.0 | 23.1%−9.9 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 118,266 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
Current member
Bob Blackman · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 24.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 30.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Blackman Elected | Conservative | 25,466 | 53.3 |
| Primesh Patel | Labour | 13,786 | 28.9 |
| Roger Clark | Reform UK | 2,188 | 4.6 |
| Sabira Lakha | Other | 2,097 | 4.4 |
| Seb Newsam | Green | 2,006 | 4.2 |
| Reetendra Nath Banjeri | Lib Dems | 1,511 | 3.2 |
| Sarajulhaq Parwani | Other | 723 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brent West Labour, toss-up
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
- Brent East Labour, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Ealing Central and Acton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated