Brent East
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent East | 40.7% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 13.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.4 | 20.4%−4.4 | 10.4%+4.2 | 23.1%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 133,708 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 70.2% |
Current member
Dawn Butler · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 34.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 24.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn Butler Elected | Labour | 19,370 | 51.2 |
| Jamila Robertson | Conservative | 6,323 | 16.7 |
| Nida Alfulaij | Green | 3,729 | 9.9 |
| Jonny Singh | Lib Dems | 2,635 | 7.0 |
| Zbigniew Kowalczyk | Reform UK | 2,024 | 5.4 |
| Aadil Shaikh | Other | 1,846 | 4.9 |
| James Mutimer | Other | 1,052 | 2.8 |
| Amin Moafi | Other | 654 | 1.7 |
| Jenner Folwell | Other | 169 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ealing Central and Acton Labour, safe seat
- Brent West Labour, toss-up
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
- Queen's Park and Maida Vale Labour, safe seat
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- Hammersmith and Chiswick Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated