Brent West
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent West | 30.7% | 30.2% | 13.6% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.4 | 20.4%+9.8 | 23.1%−9.5 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 136,768 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 73.5% |
Current member
Barry Gardiner · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Gardiner Elected | Labour | 17,258 | 41.7 |
| Sushil Rapatwar | Conservative | 13,465 | 32.5 |
| Paul Lorber | Lib Dems | 3,013 | 7.3 |
| Baston De'Medici-Jaguar | Green | 2,805 | 6.8 |
| Nadia Klok | Other | 2,774 | 6.7 |
| Ian Collier | Reform UK | 2,061 | 5.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brent East Labour, safe seat
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- Ealing Central and Acton Labour, safe seat
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated