Ealing North
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ealing North | 38.9% | 18.0% | 16.9% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.7 | 20.4%−2.4 | 23.1%−6.1 | 10.4%+1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 128,409 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 79.2% |
Current member
James Murray · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 29.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 20.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Murray Elected | Labour | 20,663 | 47.8 |
| Maria Khan | Conservative | 8,144 | 18.8 |
| Natalia Kubica | Green | 4,056 | 9.4 |
| Leon Harris | Reform UK | 3,948 | 9.1 |
| Sam Habeeb | Other | 3,139 | 7.3 |
| Craig O'Donnell | Lib Dems | 2,543 | 5.9 |
| Helmi Alharahsheh | Other | 499 | 1.2 |
| Les Beaumont | Other | 240 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ealing Southall Labour, safe seat
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- Brent West Labour, toss-up
- Brentford and Isleworth Labour, safe seat
- Richmond Park Lib Dems, safe seat
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated