Ealing Southall
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ealing Southall | 37.6% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.4 | 20.4%−4.4 | 10.4%+3.7 | 23.1%−10.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,960 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Deirdre Costigan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 33.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deirdre Costigan Elected | Labour | 23,000 | 49.1 |
| Georgie Calle | Conservative | 7,207 | 15.4 |
| Neil Reynolds | Green | 4,356 | 9.3 |
| Darshan Singh Azad | Other | 4,237 | 9.1 |
| Tariq Mahmood | Lib Dems | 2,832 | 6.1 |
| Steve Chilcott | Reform UK | 2,585 | 5.5 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 740 | 1.6 |
| Sangeet Kaur Bhail | Other | 557 | 1.2 |
| Peter Ward | Other | 475 | 1.0 |
| Joe Bhangu | Other | 319 | 0.7 |
| Jaginder Singh | Other | 295 | 0.6 |
| Pedro Da Conceicao | Other | 213 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Brentford and Isleworth Labour, safe seat
- Richmond Park Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hammersmith and Chiswick Labour, safe seat
- Twickenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Brent West Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated