Richmond Park
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Park | 51.7% | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+41.4 | 20.4%−0.7 | 23.1%−11.7 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,617 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
Current member
Sarah Olney · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 32.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 32.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Olney Elected | Lib Dems | 28,528 | 54.7 |
| Sara Gezdari | Conservative | 11,373 | 21.8 |
| Laura Coryton | Labour | 5,048 | 9.7 |
| Chas Warlow | Green | 3,416 | 6.5 |
| Michael Hearn | Reform UK | 3,258 | 6.2 |
| Chris French | Other | 349 | 0.7 |
| Richard Harrison | Other | 233 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hammersmith and Chiswick Labour, safe seat
- Brentford and Isleworth Labour, safe seat
- Ealing Central and Acton Labour, safe seat
- Ealing Southall Labour, safe seat
- Twickenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated