Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | 44.3% | 20.6% | 16.1% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+23.9 | 24.3%−3.7 | 23.1%−7.0 | 10.4%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,995 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 87.0% |
Current member
David Simmonds · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 23.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Simmonds Elected | Conservative | 21,366 | 45.4 |
| Tony Gill | Labour | 13,785 | 29.3 |
| Ian Price | Reform UK | 4,671 | 9.9 |
| Jonathan Banks | Lib Dems | 4,343 | 9.2 |
| Jess Lee | Green | 2,926 | 6.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
- Watford Labour, toss-up
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Hayes and Harlington Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated