Watford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 27.1% | 21.6% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.8 | 20.4%+1.2 | 23.1%−3.7 | 10.3%+6.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,956 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
Current member
Matt Turmaine · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Turmaine Elected | Labour | 15,708 | 35.3 |
| Dean Russell | Conservative | 10,985 | 24.7 |
| Ian Stotesbury | Lib Dems | 7,577 | 17.0 |
| Gary Ling | Reform UK | 4,930 | 11.1 |
| Khalid Chohan | Other | 2,659 | 6.0 |
| Arran Bowen-la Grange | Green | 2,428 | 5.5 |
| Sarah Knott | Other | 168 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- St Albans Lib Dems, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated