Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uxbridge and South Ruislip | 31.5% | 26.9% | 21.5% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.1 | 24.3%+2.6 | 23.1%−1.6 | 10.4%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 120,265 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
Current member
Danny Beales · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Beales Elected | Labour | 16,599 | 36.2 |
| Steve Tuckwell | Conservative | 16,012 | 34.9 |
| Tim Wheeler | Reform UK | 6,610 | 14.4 |
| Sarah Green | Green | 4,354 | 9.5 |
| Ian Rex-Hawkes | Lib Dems | 1,752 | 3.8 |
| Gary Harbord | Other | 223 | 0.5 |
| Steve Gardner | Other | 200 | 0.4 |
| Geoff Courtenay | Other | 164 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
- Hayes and Harlington Labour, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Harrow West Labour, competitive
- Feltham and Heston Labour, safe seat
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated