Hayes and Harlington
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayes and Harlington | 41.5% | 20.5% | 19.6% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+17.2 | 23.1%−2.5 | 20.4%−0.8 | 10.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,441 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 70.1% |
Current member
John McDonnell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 20.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John McDonnell Elected | Labour | 20,405 | 53.3 |
| Dylan Thomas | Conservative | 8,374 | 21.9 |
| Francoise Thompson | Reform UK | 4,114 | 10.7 |
| Christine West | Green | 2,131 | 5.6 |
| Rizwana Karim | Other | 1,975 | 5.2 |
| Alexander Cunliffe | Lib Dems | 1,316 | 3.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Feltham and Heston Labour, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
- Spelthorne Conservative, toss-up
- Ealing Southall Labour, safe seat
- Ealing North Labour, safe seat
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated