Spelthorne
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spelthorne | 27.9% | 25.8% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.5 | 23.1%+2.8 | 24.3%−5.2 | 10.3%+6.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,551 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 81.5% |
Current member
Lincoln Jopp · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Jopp Elected | Conservative | 14,038 | 30.4 |
| Claire Tighe | Labour | 12,448 | 27.0 |
| Harry Boparai | Lib Dems | 8,710 | 18.9 |
| Rory O'Brien | Reform UK | 8,284 | 17.9 |
| Manu Singh | Green | 2,413 | 5.2 |
| Alistair Miller | Other | 273 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative, safe seat
- Feltham and Heston Labour, safe seat
- Hayes and Harlington Labour, safe seat
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Windsor Conservative, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated