St Albans
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Albans | 53.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+43.0 | 20.4%−4.8 | 23.1%−8.5 | 10.4%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,650 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 80.9% |
Current member
Daisy Cooper · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 38.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 37.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Cooper Elected | Lib Dems | 29,222 | 56.6 |
| James Spencer | Conservative | 9,388 | 18.2 |
| Sophia Bhatti | Labour | 5,189 | 10.1 |
| John Dowdle | Reform UK | 4,336 | 8.4 |
| Simon Grover | Green | 3,272 | 6.3 |
| Dafydd Morriss | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
| Stewart Satterly | Other | 103 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hertsmere Conservative, safe seat
- Watford Labour, toss-up
- Welwyn Hatfield Conservative, toss-up
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- Chipping Barnet Conservative, toss-up
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated