Hertsmere
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertsmere | 41.0% | 21.6% | 19.2% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+20.6 | 23.1%−1.5 | 24.3%−5.1 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,213 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 70.2% |
Current member
Sir Oliver Dowden · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 16.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 19.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Dowden Elected | Conservative | 21,451 | 44.7 |
| Josh Tapper | Labour | 13,459 | 28.0 |
| Darren Selkus | Reform UK | 6,584 | 13.7 |
| Emma Matanle | Lib Dems | 3,710 | 7.7 |
| John Humphries | Green | 2,267 | 4.7 |
| Ray Bolster | Other | 536 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chipping Barnet Conservative, toss-up
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
- St Albans Lib Dems, safe seat
- Harrow East Conservative, safe seat
- Welwyn Hatfield Conservative, toss-up
- Finchley and Golders Green Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated