Chipping Barnet
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chipping Barnet | 33.9% | 33.1% | 16.0% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.4 | 24.3%+8.8 | 23.1%−7.1 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 112,341 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 78.1% |
Current member
Dan Tomlinson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Tomlinson Elected | Labour | 21,585 | 42.4 |
| Theresa Villiers | Conservative | 18,671 | 36.7 |
| Hamish Haddow | Reform UK | 3,986 | 7.8 |
| David Farbey | Green | 3,442 | 6.8 |
| Mark Durrant | Lib Dems | 2,614 | 5.1 |
| Richard Hewison | Other | 379 | 0.7 |
| Kay Lauer | Other | 182 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Finchley and Golders Green Conservative, toss-up
- Hendon Conservative, toss-up
- Hertsmere Conservative, safe seat
- Hornsey and Friern Barnet Labour, safe seat
- Southgate and Wood Green Labour, safe seat
- Hampstead and Highgate Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated