Hornsey and Friern Barnet
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Lib Dems | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hornsey and Friern Barnet | 49.6% | 18.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+25.4 | 10.4%+8.0 | 10.3%+0.8 | 23.1%−13.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,045 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 74.6% |
Current member
Catherine West · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 44.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 31.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine West Elected | Labour | 28,535 | 58.7 |
| Fabio Vollono | Green | 7,060 | 14.5 |
| Dawn Barnes | Lib Dems | 6,099 | 12.5 |
| Naz Panju | Conservative | 4,011 | 8.2 |
| Navdeep Singh | Reform UK | 1,989 | 4.1 |
| Dino Philippos | Other | 766 | 1.6 |
| Helen Spiby-Vann | Other | 182 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hampstead and Highgate Labour, safe seat
- Finchley and Golders Green Conservative, toss-up
- Islington North Other, safe seat
- Southgate and Wood Green Labour, safe seat
- Holborn and St Pancras Labour, safe seat
- Tottenham Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated