Holborn and St Pancras
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Other | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holborn and St Pancras | 43.3% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+19.1 | 10.4%+5.8 | 5.0%+10.6 | 23.1%−11.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,927 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 31 |
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
Current member
Sir Keir Starmer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 27.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 26.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer Elected | Labour | 18,884 | 48.9 |
| Andrew Feinstein | Other | 7,312 | 18.9 |
| David Stansell | Green | 4,030 | 10.4 |
| Mehreen Malik | Conservative | 2,776 | 7.2 |
| David Roberts | Reform UK | 2,371 | 6.1 |
| Charlie Clinton | Lib Dems | 2,236 | 5.8 |
| Wais Islam | Other | 636 | 1.7 |
| Nick the Incredible Flying Brick | Other | 162 | 0.4 |
| John Poynton | Other | 75 | 0.2 |
| Tom Scripps | Other | 61 | 0.2 |
| Senthil Kumar | Other | 40 | 0.1 |
| Bobby Smith | Other | 19 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cities of London and Westminster Conservative, toss-up
- Hampstead and Highgate Labour, safe seat
- Islington North Other, safe seat
- Islington South and Finsbury Labour, safe seat
- Hornsey and Friern Barnet Labour, safe seat
- Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated