Vauxhall and Camberwell Green
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vauxhall and Camberwell Green | 47.5% | 21.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+23.2 | 10.4%+11.4 | 23.1%−12.1 | 10.3%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,263 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 77.2% |
Current member
Florence Eshalomi · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 40.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 25.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florence Eshalomi Elected | Labour | 21,528 | 57.4 |
| Catherine Dawkins | Green | 6,416 | 17.1 |
| Chris French | Lib Dems | 4,549 | 12.1 |
| Aarti Joshi | Conservative | 2,809 | 7.5 |
| Mike King | Reform UK | 2,033 | 5.4 |
| Andrew McRobbie | Other | 201 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Clapham and Brixton Hill Labour, safe seat
- Peckham Labour, safe seat
- Dulwich and West Norwood Labour, safe seat
- Cities of London and Westminster Conservative, toss-up
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour, safe seat
- Islington South and Finsbury Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated