Cities of London and Westminster
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cities of London and Westminster | 29.6% | 28.3% | 14.0% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.2 | 24.3%+4.1 | 23.1%−9.0 | 10.4%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 128,061 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 79.6% |
Current member
Rachel Blake · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Blake Elected | Labour | 15,302 | 39.0 |
| Tim Barnes | Conservative | 12,594 | 32.1 |
| Edward Lucas | Lib Dems | 4,335 | 11.1 |
| Rajiv Sinha | Green | 2,844 | 7.3 |
| Tarun Ghulati | Reform UK | 2,752 | 7.0 |
| Hoz Shafiei | Other | 727 | 1.9 |
| Liz Burford | Other | 352 | 0.9 |
| Huge De Burgh | Other | 110 | 0.3 |
| John Generic | Other | 110 | 0.3 |
| Tim Hallett | Other | 55 | 0.1 |
| Matthew Carr | Other | 34 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Holborn and St Pancras Labour, safe seat
- Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Labour, safe seat
- Islington South and Finsbury Labour, safe seat
- Islington North Other, safe seat
- Hampstead and Highgate Labour, safe seat
- Battersea Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated