Islington South and Finsbury
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islington South and Finsbury | 44.5% | 21.7% | 12.8% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+20.3 | 10.4%+11.3 | 23.1%−10.2 | 20.4%−11.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,436 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Emily Thornberry · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 36.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Thornberry Elected | Labour | 22,946 | 53.7 |
| Carne Ross | Green | 7,491 | 17.5 |
| Terry Stacy | Lib Dems | 4,045 | 9.5 |
| Imogen Sinclair | Conservative | 3,584 | 8.4 |
| Max Nelson | Reform UK | 3,388 | 7.9 |
| Andrew Parry | Other | 569 | 1.3 |
| Lesley Woodburn | Other | 354 | 0.8 |
| Ethan Saunders | Other | 215 | 0.5 |
| Jake Painter | Other | 162 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Islington North Other, safe seat
- Holborn and St Pancras Labour, safe seat
- Hackney South and Shoreditch Labour, safe seat
- Cities of London and Westminster Conservative, toss-up
- Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour, toss-up
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated