Bethnal Green and Stepney
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 63%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Other | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bethnal Green and Stepney | 29.6% | 24.8% | 20.1% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.3 | 5.0%+19.8 | 10.4%+9.7 | 23.1%−11.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 132,943 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 29 |
| Employment rate | 69.6% |
Current member
Rushanara Ali · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushanara Ali Elected | Labour | 15,896 | 34.1 |
| Ajmal Masroor | Other | 14,207 | 30.5 |
| Phoebe Gill | Green | 6,391 | 13.7 |
| Rabina Khan | Lib Dems | 4,777 | 10.2 |
| Peter Sceats | Reform UK | 1,964 | 4.2 |
| Oscar Reaney | Conservative | 1,920 | 4.1 |
| Vanessa Hudson | Other | 348 | 0.8 |
| Sham Uddin | Other | 325 | 0.7 |
| Md Somon Ahmed | Other | 315 | 0.7 |
| Reggie Adams | Other | 271 | 0.6 |
| Jon Mabbutt | Other | 233 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hackney South and Shoreditch Labour, safe seat
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour, safe seat
- Poplar and Limehouse Labour, safe seat
- Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour, safe seat
- Islington South and Finsbury Labour, safe seat
- Peckham Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated