Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Lib Dems | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | 36.7% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.4 | 10.3%+11.7 | 10.4%+5.4 | 23.1%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,422 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 75.6% |
Current member
Neil Coyle · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 14.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Coyle Elected | Labour | 16,857 | 44.8 |
| Rachel Bentley | Lib Dems | 9,070 | 24.1 |
| Susan Hunter | Green | 4,477 | 11.9 |
| Tony Sharp | Reform UK | 3,397 | 9.0 |
| Jonathan Iliff | Conservative | 2,879 | 7.7 |
| Piers Corbyn | Other | 403 | 1.1 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 273 | 0.7 |
| Barry Duckett | Other | 247 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peckham Labour, safe seat
- Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour, toss-up
- Hackney South and Shoreditch Labour, safe seat
- Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Labour, safe seat
- Poplar and Limehouse Labour, safe seat
- Greenwich and Woolwich Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated