Hackney South and Shoreditch
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hackney South and Shoreditch | 48.5% | 28.7% | 9.4% | 5.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+24.2 | 10.4%+18.3 | 23.1%−13.7 | 20.4%−14.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,399 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 75.4% |
Current member
Dame Meg Hillier · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 35.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 19.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meg Hillier Elected | Labour | 24,724 | 59.3 |
| Laura-Louise Fairley | Green | 9,987 | 24.0 |
| Joanna Reeves | Conservative | 2,076 | 5.0 |
| Theo Roos | Lib Dems | 1,996 | 4.8 |
| Anil Bhatti | Reform UK | 1,601 | 3.8 |
| Shahed Hussain | Other | 1,007 | 2.4 |
| Carol Small | Other | 310 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour, toss-up
- Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour, safe seat
- Islington South and Finsbury Labour, safe seat
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour, safe seat
- Poplar and Limehouse Labour, safe seat
- Tottenham Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated