Poplar and Limehouse
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poplar and Limehouse | 35.4% | 19.9% | 13.1% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.1 | 10.4%+9.5 | 23.1%−10.0 | 20.4%−8.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 146,385 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 30 |
| Employment rate | 73.7% |
Current member
Apsana Begum · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 28.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 15.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apsana Begum Elected | Labour | 18,535 | 43.1 |
| Nathalie Bienfait | Green | 5,975 | 13.9 |
| Freddie Downing | Conservative | 4,738 | 11.0 |
| Ehtashamul Haque | Other | 4,554 | 10.6 |
| Richard Flowers | Lib Dems | 4,189 | 9.7 |
| Tony Glover | Reform UK | 3,403 | 7.9 |
| Kamran Khan | Other | 1,463 | 3.4 |
| Manny Lawal | Other | 194 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Ham and Beckton Labour, safe seat
- Greenwich and Woolwich Labour, safe seat
- Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour, toss-up
- Stratford and Bow Labour, safe seat
- Lewisham North Labour, safe seat
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated