Harpenden and Berkhamsted
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harpenden and Berkhamsted | 45.3% | 26.8% | 14.9% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+35.0 | 20.4%+6.3 | 23.1%−8.2 | 10.4%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,445 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 77.4% |
Current member
Victoria Collins · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 19.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 18.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Collins Elected | Lib Dems | 27,282 | 50.2 |
| Nigel Gardner | Conservative | 16,574 | 30.5 |
| Saba Poursaeedi | Reform UK | 4,245 | 7.8 |
| Zara Layne | Labour | 4,061 | 7.5 |
| Paul De Hoest | Green | 1,951 | 3.6 |
| Mark Patten | Other | 223 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hemel Hempstead Reform UK, toss-up
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Watford Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated