Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 67% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | 27.3% | 26.4% | 22.5% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+6.9 | 23.1%+3.3 | 24.3%−1.8 | 10.3%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,912 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 73.1% |
Current member
Alex Mayer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Mayer Elected | Labour | 14,976 | 32.5 |
| Andrew Selous | Conservative | 14,309 | 31.1 |
| Harry Palmer | Reform UK | 8,071 | 17.5 |
| Emma Holland-Lindsay | Lib Dems | 6,497 | 14.1 |
| Sukhinder Hundal | Green | 2,115 | 4.6 |
| Antonio Vitiello | Other | 77 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Aylesbury Conservative, toss-up
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated