Mid Bedfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Bedfordshire | 32.6% | 24.0% | 22.0% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.2 | 23.1%+1.0 | 24.3%−2.2 | 10.4%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,868 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 85.0% |
Current member
Blake Stephenson · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Stephenson Elected | Conservative | 16,912 | 34.1 |
| Maahwish Mirza | Labour | 15,591 | 31.4 |
| Dave Holland | Reform UK | 8,594 | 17.3 |
| Stuart Roberts | Lib Dems | 4,068 | 8.2 |
| Cade Sibley | Green | 2,584 | 5.2 |
| Gareth Mackey | Other | 1,700 | 3.4 |
| Richard Brunning | Other | 172 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- Bedford Labour, safe seat
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- North Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated