Bedford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford | 33.6% | 20.4% | 19.3% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.3 | 23.1%−2.7 | 20.4%−1.1 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,633 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 83.9% |
Current member
Mohammad Yasin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Yasin Elected | Labour | 18,342 | 45.1 |
| Pinder Chauhan | Conservative | 8,912 | 21.9 |
| Matt Lansley | Reform UK | 4,548 | 11.2 |
| Henry Vann | Lib Dems | 4,025 | 9.9 |
| Ben Foley | Green | 2,394 | 5.9 |
| Tarek Javed | Other | 1,442 | 3.5 |
| Prince Chaudhury | Other | 996 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated