Hitchin
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hitchin | 28.3% | 26.0% | 23.3% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.0 | 20.4%+5.6 | 23.1%+0.2 | 10.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,547 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 84.1% |
Current member
Alistair Strathern · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Strathern Elected | Labour | 23,067 | 43.9 |
| Bim Afolami | Conservative | 14,958 | 28.5 |
| Charles Bunker | Reform UK | 6,760 | 12.9 |
| Chris Lucas | Lib Dems | 4,913 | 9.4 |
| Will Lavin | Green | 2,631 | 5.0 |
| Sid Cordle | Other | 181 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Luton North Labour, safe seat
- Stevenage Labour, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Welwyn Hatfield Conservative, toss-up
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- St Albans Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated