Stevenage
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 28.9% | 28.1% | 22.5% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.7 | 23.1%+5.0 | 20.4%+2.1 | 10.4% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,366 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Kevin Bonavia · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bonavia Elected | Labour | 17,698 | 41.4 |
| Alex Clarkson | Conservative | 11,080 | 25.9 |
| Peter Hopper | Reform UK | 7,667 | 17.9 |
| Lisa Nash | Lib Dems | 3,467 | 8.1 |
| Paul Dawson | Green | 2,655 | 6.2 |
| Joshua Smith | Other | 148 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Welwyn Hatfield Conservative, toss-up
- North East Hertfordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
- St Albans Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hertsmere Conservative, safe seat
- Broxbourne Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated