Broxbourne
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 85%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broxbourne | 32.4% | 29.4% | 20.8% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.0 | 23.1%+6.3 | 24.3%−3.4 | 10.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,478 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 83.8% |
Current member
Lewis Cocking · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cocking Elected | Conservative | 15,810 | 36.8 |
| Catherine Deakin | Labour | 12,952 | 30.2 |
| Tom Holdsworth | Reform UK | 8,782 | 20.5 |
| Nick Belfitt | Lib Dems | 2,688 | 6.3 |
| Owen Brett | Green | 2,461 | 5.7 |
| Martin Harvey | Other | 172 | 0.4 |
| Brett Frewin | Other | 87 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hertford and Stortford Reform UK, toss-up
- Epping Forest Conservative, safe seat
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
- North East Hertfordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Edmonton and Winchmore Hill Labour, safe seat
- Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated