North East Hertfordshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 90%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Hertfordshire | 28.1% | 25.2% | 23.4% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.7 | 23.1%+2.2 | 24.3%−0.9 | 10.4%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,451 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 83.8% |
Current member
Chris Hinchliff · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hinchliff Elected | Labour | 18,358 | 35.0 |
| Nikki Da Costa | Conservative | 16,435 | 31.3 |
| Steve Adelantado | Reform UK | 8,462 | 16.1 |
| Ruth Brown | Lib Dems | 5,463 | 10.4 |
| Vicky Burt | Green | 3,802 | 7.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stevenage Labour, toss-up
- Broxbourne Conservative, toss-up
- Hertford and Stortford Reform UK, toss-up
- Welwyn Hatfield Conservative, toss-up
- Hitchin Labour, toss-up
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated